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Bullet train innovation

we can identify four main evolutionary stages in the high-speed train innovation trajectory (s-curve) measured in terms of performance of maximum speeds and rate of adoption by train operators, overtime: Introduction; initial diffusion; expansion; maturity. FTA, as we can see in figure 1, emerges at the high-speed train technology transition from its initial diffusion stage to its expansion across Europe, and matures as its technology becomes widely accepted. In Europe two train operators the French SCNCF and the German BD have been the pioneers in increase speeds of trains, lasting since the 1950’s to our days. They introduced the first generation of trains in 1981 with SNCF’s TGV-PSE, followed in 1991 by DB’s ICE-1, running at commercial speeds of 289 km/h and 250km/h respectively. The technology development at that time was done on their own, in-house, in cooperation with flag manufacturer (SNCF / Alstom and DB / Siemens) requiring great efforts and progressing very slowly (the SNCF started evaluating running at very high speeds since it received the first CC 7100 electric locomotives of higher power already in 1954 but only in 1981 the first high- speed train was introduced to service). FTA was not actively pursued at that time, only cost and benefit analysis ex-ante on specific corridor projects to justify governmental decisions were conducted. The technology decisions here were tactical, based on the available resources (in France SNCF option to go for incremental innovation of full electric power high-speed train Zebulon, the TGV prototype, was precipitated by the oil shocks in 1973, putting aside contemporaneous developments as the disruptive Aérotrain or even the turbo train TGV001; in Germany the introduction to service of high-speed train was delayed during years because of disagreement between the government and DB in relation to the type of lines in which it should run, mixed vs dedicated lines). When developing the second generation of high-speed trains SNCF and DB were looking for efficiency while further increasing speeds. The SNCF/Alstom TGV-MED was introduced in France in 1991 and the DB/Siemens ICE-3E in Spain in 2002, running at commercial speeds of 320km/h and 300km/h respectively. High-speed trains gained legitimacy, with Alstom and Siemens deeper understanding of the technology system from national operations and expansion to other countries (in 1994 the channel crossing link UK-France-Belgium, and in 2002 Spain). Yet developments from the first to the second generation were slow (taking 20 years). They were about endogenous renewals with manufacturers adapting the existing vehicle technology platforms to specific orders requirements for cross-border operations or costumed to new clients (example improvements in aerodynamics, wheels, breaks, power cars and articulation cars configurations). As in the first generation technological decisions were tactic, based on available resources, supported by exant cost-benefit analysis undertaken by governments. First step is however given towards FTA across railways in Europe when UK first introduces scenarios (Potter and Roy, 2000) to indentify innovation priorities in the liberalized railway market happening from …

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… figure 1 illustrates, we can identify four main evolutionary stages in the high-speed train innovation trajectory (s-curve) measured in terms of performance of maximum speeds and rate of adoption by train operators, overtime: Introduction; initial diffusion; expansion; maturity. FTA, as we can see in figure 1, emerges at the high-speed train technology transition from its initial diffusion stage to its expansion across Europe, and matures as its technology becomes widely accepted. In Europe two train operators the French SCNCF and the German BD have been the pioneers in increase speeds of trains, lasting since the 1950’s to our days. They introduced the first generation of trains in 1981 with SNCF’s TGV-PSE, followed in 1991 by DB’s ICE-1, running at commercial speeds of 289 km/h and 250km/h respectively. The technology development at that time was done on their own, in-house, in cooperation with flag manufacturer (SNCF / Alstom and DB / Siemens) requiring great efforts and progressing very slowly (the SNCF started evaluating running at very high speeds since it received the first CC 7100 electric locomotives of higher power already in 1954 but only in 1981 the first high- speed train was introduced to service). FTA was not actively pursued at that time, only cost and benefit analysis ex-ante on specific corridor projects to justify governmental decisions were conducted. The technology decisions here were tactical, based on the available resources (in France SNCF option to go for incremental innovation of full electric power high-speed train Zebulon, the TGV prototype, was precipitated by the oil shocks in 1973, putting aside contemporaneous developments as the disruptive Aéro train or even the turbo train TGV001; in Germany the introduction to service of high-speed train was delayed during years because of disagreement between the government and DB in relation to the type of lines in which it should run, mixed vs dedicated lines). When developing the second generation of high-speed trains SNCF and DB were looking for efficiency while further increasing speeds. The SNCF/Alstom TGV-MED was introduced in France in 1991 and the DB/Siemens ICE-3E in Spain in 2002, running at commercial speeds of 320km/h and 300km/h respectively. High-speed trains gained legitimacy, with Alstom and Siemens deeper understanding of the technology system from national operations and expansion to other countries (in 1994 the channel crossing link UK-France-Belgium, and in 2002 Spain). Yet developments from the first to the second generation were slow (taking 20 years).